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Oil’s tanker transformation
The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022
Letter from the US: The curse of strong energy exports
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
Venezuela mismanaged its oil, and US shale benefitted
Chavez’s socialist reforms boosted state control but pushed knowledge and capital out of the sector, opening the way for the US shale revolution
OPEC’s discipline sets tone for 2026
OPEC+ remains on track as output falls, with only Gabon failing to hit its output targets in December, although Kazakhstan’s compliance was involuntary
Outlook 2026: Time for a new international energy order
With the arrival of a multipolar world and 4b energy-poor people, the existing energy order is no longer fit for purpose
Outlook 2026: Crude on crude – How shale oil flipped the script on the global barrel
Heavy, sour crude and shale oil will battle for market relevance, but it may not be the sweetest barrels that taste victory
Outlook 2026: Grand plan for offshore leasing should give boost to US Gulf
As activity in the US Gulf has stagnated at a lower level, the government is taking steps to encourage fresh exploration and bolster field development work
Outlook 2026: LNG markets and the overhang
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Outlook 2026: The US energy paradox – Efficiency at home, influence abroad
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Outlook 2026: Trump’s LNG diplomacy will likely run into commercial, regulatory reality
The president is aiming for ‘energy dominance’ via LNG sales, largely to Europe, but supply is set to outstrip demand, and EU regulations remain a stumbling block
US Markets
Neil Atkinson
31 January 2025
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Oil producers under pressure in 2025

Trump may get his wish for cheaper oil, but prices will more likely be driven by fundamentals than policies

Nobody could accuse President Trump of being dull. His campaign slogan “drill, baby, drill” is being repeated even after the January inauguration. Regulations are being relaxed to allow oil and gas companies to invest in expanding production. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve will, apparently, be re-filled to capacity—an increase of nearly 300m bl from today’s level. Tariffs are promised against Canada, China, Mexico and the EU, among others, to force them to either export less to the US or import more from the US. Sanctions against Iran, Russia and Venezuela might be toughened in the coming months. And this could be just the start. Ultimately, for all the sound and fury of Trump’s initiatives

Also in this section
Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
16 January 2026
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
Oil’s tanker transformation
16 January 2026
The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022
Letter from the US: The curse of strong energy exports
Opinion
15 January 2026
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
Venezuela mismanaged its oil, and US shale benefitted
14 January 2026
Chavez’s socialist reforms boosted state control but pushed knowledge and capital out of the sector, opening the way for the US shale revolution

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