US shale closes the gap

Supply is gradually returning, but the market will remain tight into next year

The start of 2022 may be fast approaching and oil market volatility again on the rise—with WTI suffering its biggest drop in early December since the initial pandemic-induced freefall last year—but crude production in the US shale patch is slowly recovering, and the Permian has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The EIA estimates that US crude production will end this year averaging 11.1mn bl/d, down by 200,000bl/d from last year and 1.13mn bl/d below volumes recorded in 2019. Into next year, the agency expects greater tight oil activity—driven by oil prices staying above $60/bl—to lift average annual production to 11.9mn bl/d, edging closer to pre-pandemic levels but still 333,000bl/d b