African oil production is expected to fall steadily to 2030
Africa's upstream to feel transition squeeze
The continent’s oil production will decline in the 2020s while gas production will increase before starting to slip, according to the IEA
African crude output will decline this decade while gas production will make short-term gains before also starting to fall, according to the IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook 2022. The agency’s projections are based on a “sustainable Africa scenario”, in which the continent meets all of its energy-related development goals—including universal access to power by 2030 and the various national net-zero pledges and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals—and the rest of the world follows suit. But the IEA admits that “making this scenario a reality is a formidable task”. Export dependency The prospects for Africa’s oil production “hinge primarily on exports”, the IEA emphasises, and so are “gre
Also in this section
16 January 2026
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
16 January 2026
The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022
15 January 2026
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
14 January 2026
Chavez’s socialist reforms boosted state control but pushed knowledge and capital out of the sector, opening the way for the US shale revolution
