Outlook 2025: US oil production continues slow, steady growth
After hitting a high in 2019, output dropped during the Covid-19 pandemic, only to resume growth in 2021 and reach new highs. The US government expects 2.4% growth in 2025
In the eight years from 2016–24, US oil production (crude oil plus condensate from gas wells) has grown by 49.4%, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data (see Fig.1). Indeed, the numbers show US output averaged just 8.85m b/d in 2016, grew by 3.5m b/d for three years through 2019, lost 1m b/d during the pandemic of 2020–21 and then topped out at 13.22m b/d in 2024. This remarkable record is spurred by shale activity as well as technological improvements in recovery from conventional wells. Accordingly, the EIA predicts US production will gain another 320,000b/d during 2025. A closer look at the numbers reveals the bulk of the increase is coming from the Permian Basin of
Also in this section
5 March 2026
Gas is a central pillar of Colombia’s energy system, but declining production poses a significant challenge, and LNG will be increasingly needed as a stopgap. A recent major offshore gas discovery offers hope, but policy improvements are also required, Camilo Morales, secretary general of Naturgas, the Colombian gas association, tells Petroleum Economist
4 March 2026
The continent’s inventories were already depleted before conflict erupted in the Middle East, causing prices to spike ahead of the crucial summer refilling season
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
