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Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Pemex scrambles to plug the gap
The NOC’s dire financial situation and maturing fields have left the authorities with little choice but to reduce crude expectations
Hydrocarbon Processing Refining Databook 2025: Americas
The US and Canada are boosting capacity builds for renewable diesel and biofuels, while Central and South American countries are investing heavily to upgrade and expand their domestic refining sectors
Latin America’s evolving crude outlook
New supply from Argentina, Brazil and Guyana is rich in middle distillates, but optimism in terms of volume growth remains tempered by regulatory and technical risks as well as price volatility
Mexico’s energy ambitions weigh heavily on Pemex
The government’s resource nationalism is aggravating the NOC’s debt position and could yet worsen if also tasked with the decarbonisation shift
Mexico’s new president faces fiscal crunch
While greater focus on decarbonisation is likely, economic pressures and huge debt burden could squeeze energy policy ambitions
Mexico’s election could evolve oil nationalism
Upcoming elections are likely to deliver a win for the party of president Andres Lopez Obrador, but analysts differ over to what degree his successor will stick to his energy policies
Mexico’s fledgling LNG export industry faces growth challenges
While developers are making progress, infrastructure, regulatory and political uncertainties risk stunting opportunities
Optimism grows around Mexican upstream
Things are looking up for exploration and production in Mexico, with new finds and developments set to boost output in coming years
Global LNG analysis report 2023 – Part 4
The fourth and final part of this deep-dive analysis looks at LNG projects planned or underway across the Americas
Balancing the books while scaling up the upstream and downstream will be testing for Pemex
Mexico Pemex
Charles Waine
12 August 2021
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Headwinds buffet Pemex’s upstream progress

The NOC had a better financial quarter in Q2 but will likely need significantly more money to hit upstream goals

Mexican state oil company Pemex may have boasted almost $4bn in net income over the past 12 months, but limited capex is making long-term upstream targets look doubtful. And the government’s obsession with the loss-making downstream continues to bite into Pemex’s profits. The NOC is clearly paying some attention to its upstream pledge and is lifting crude production, albeit only marginally. Pemex averaged 1.758mn bl/d for Q2, a 1.3pc jump over Q1 and 3.8pc over Q4 last year. The average price achieved by Mexico’s crude export mix also increased by almost 90pc year-on-year, helping offset some of the company’s recent heavy financial losses. And output from new fields continues to come online.

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