China holds the key for European winter LNG

Demand in the East Asian powerhouse is the major variable for pace of deliveries into the Russian gas-starved continent

“The big lifesaver for Europe has been the considerable drop in Chinese LNG demand, driven by high spot prices, renewed Covid lockdowns—which have hit economic activity—and a focus on maximising cheaper alternative sources of gas supply, including domestic production and pipeline imports.” So says Laura Page, LNG analyst at cargo tracking firm Kpler. But the key question as Europe faces winter demand with huge uncertainty over how much Russian gas will flow is whether any increase in China’s requirements will crimp availability for its existing and new terminals. “It has been surprising how much LNG has come to Europe so far this year [see Fig.1], considering how tight the market balance was

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