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Power of Siberia 2: Deal or no deal?
There is a good strategic case for China to sign a deal for gas supplies via the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, but Beijing’s concerns around over-dependence on a single supplier and desire to drive down the price make it relatively unlikely a contract will be finalised this year
China creates two-tier oil dynamic
There is a bifurcation in the global oil market as China’s stockpiling contrasts with reduced inventories elsewhere
China’s oil output to scale new heights
New discoveries and stabilisation of legacy fields’ output have helped China reverse the decline and be a top-five producer in recent years
South Korea’s transition bottlenecks keep LNG in play
The country’s new government has grand plans for renewables, but the structural changes needed for these policies will take years to carry out
India to help Asia spearhead global refining
Shifting demand patterns leaves most populous nation primed to become downstream leader as China and the West retreat
US, Russia and China circle the Arctic
The strategic importance of vast untapped oil and gas reserves and key shipping routes has come in from the cold
EU faces tough task following Japan LNG model
The bloc may find it very difficult to replicate Japan’s approach due to fundamental differences in policy and markets
Cheap gas key to unlocking new markets
Weaning poorer regions off coal means gas needs to be abundant and competitive longer term
Do not underplay China’s long-term gas growth narrative
A subdued market amid global trade tensions is just an aberration in gas’ upward trajectory
China’s critical gas position
China will play a huge role in driving gas demand, with its Qatar partnership crucial to this growth amid global structural challenges
LNG carrier in the Suez Canal
Japan China South Korea
Simon Ferrie
12 July 2023
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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East Asian LNG demand may not threaten Europe

Risks persist, particularly those related to weather, which could tighten gas availability for Europe

Europe’s gas market is no longer an island. The bloc pivoted rapidly towards LNG and away from Russian pipeline supplies following the invasion of Ukraine last year. This has put European gas buyers in direct competition for cargoes with the established LNG markets of East Asia. China and Japan have jockeyed for position as the world’s largest LNG consumer in recent years, with South Korea taking third place. Altogether, that means the Northeast Asia region is vital to global LNG demand and flows. And so, in this increasingly global context, East Asian demand will prove a critical factor in how much LNG is available to supply Europe this winter. “One of the biggest questions the market is fa

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