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Letter from the Middle East: Iran-Israel war risks dire straits
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have reverberations that would sound around the world
Israel-Iran war imperils Egypt’s energy supply
Egypt’s government was already preparing for potential energy shortages this summer, and the loss of Israeli gas supply has made things worse
The oil risk premium fable
Israel’s attack on Iran caught oil firms with low inventories due to their efforts to protect themselves from falling prices, creating a perfect storm
Iraq seeks alternatives to Iranian gas
The country is facing energy shortfalls this summer amid reduced Iranian gas imports and difficulties leasing an FSRU
EU faces tough task following Japan LNG model
The bloc may find it very difficult to replicate Japan’s approach due to fundamental differences in policy and markets
Is a Russia-Iran gas deal on the horizon?
Russia has ample spare gas, and Iran needs it, but sanctions and pricing pose steep hurdles.
Europe’s hard choices on gas security
EU half measures over storage regulation, geopolitical risks to ending Russian gas, power outage questions and China’s LNG resale leverage make for a challenging path ahead.
Letter from Iran: High-stakes nuclear diplomacy
Iran’s oil is caught in the crosshairs of support from China and Russia and US maximum pressure, with options becoming more and more limited
Letter from Iran: US sanctions cut off crude supply line
Deliveries to China decline by around 1m b/d from move to curb crude exports to Shandong port, putting Iran under further economic pressure
Assad’s downfall is bad news for Iran
The collapse of the Syrian dictator’s regime will weaken Tehran in profound ways both economically and geopolitically
Iran EU
James Gavin
London
5 November 2018
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Bartering is Iran's best hope to bypass sanctions

With oil exports in freefall, the country is hoping that a new EU-backed plan to help companies continue trading will work. But optimism is low

For many Iranians, it is a case of déjà vu. Under intense US pressure, the Islamic Republic's oil exports are being squeezed hard. In an echo of the darkest days of 2012, when sanctions brought Iran's exports of crude and condensate to just 1.5m barrels a day—their lowest level since 1986—the latest export figures made for grimly familiar reading. In the first week of October, Iran's crude oil exports fell to just 1.1m b/d, according to tanker data cited by Reuters. The decline has been precipitous. In April, the last month before President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Tehran was selling 2.5m b/d.

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