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Outlook 2026: South America’s oil growth story masks hidden risks
Brazil, Guyana and Argentina to lead additional crude supply increases, but the rest of the region remains patchy
The looming risks of a US-Venezuela war
The Caribbean country’s role in the global oil market is significantly diminished, but disruptions caused by outright conflict would still have implications for US Gulf Coast refineries
The curious case of oil-on-water
The market is facing being drowned in excess crude, but one caveat is that a large chunk is due to buyers reluctant to snap up sanctioned barrels
Brazil could be an energy trailblazer
The oil powerhouse will not just join the top five crude exporters in the coming years, it may be a model for how petrostates balance growth, policy and sustainability
Mexico must overhaul its NOC
Crucial structural reforms and change in operating philosophy are needed to arrest PEMEX’s ongoing decline and restore oil production growth
Mexico’s upstream Pemex gamble
The government refuses to expand E&P access despite the NOC’s high debt pile, falling crude output and growing gas import dependence
Brazil looks to solve its energy security travails
Despite significant crude projections over the next five years, Latin America’s largest economy could be forced to start importing unless action is taken
Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Pemex scrambles to plug the gap
The NOC’s dire financial situation and maturing fields have left the authorities with little choice but to reduce crude expectations
Brazil rides a production wave
Latin America’s largest economy expects big uptick in crude this year with the imminent arrival of several FPSOs
Brazil Venezuela Mexico Petrobras PDV Pemex
Justin Jacobs
26 March 2018
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Reforms at risk in Latin America's elections

A busy political season will put recent market-friendly energy changes to the test

On 24 January, Brazilians were transfixed by proceedings in a courtroom in the southern city of Porto Alegre. After nine hours of deliberations, a three-judge panel unanimously upheld a corruption conviction and prison sentence related to the sweeping Lavo Jato scandal for former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known simply as Lula. The ruling, on top of being a landmark moment in the vast corruption scandal, scrambled the political landscape ahead of elections in October. Leftist leader Lula, who maintains a wide base of support despite the corruption conviction, was planning a bid to return to the presidency and had been leading in polls. The 24 January decision doesn't end those chan

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