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Letter from the Middle East: Iran-Israel war risks dire straits
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have reverberations that would sound around the world
Israel-Iran war imperils Egypt’s energy supply
Egypt’s government was already preparing for potential energy shortages this summer, and the loss of Israeli gas supply has made things worse
The oil risk premium fable
Israel’s attack on Iran caught oil firms with low inventories due to their efforts to protect themselves from falling prices, creating a perfect storm
Iraq seeks alternatives to Iranian gas
The country is facing energy shortfalls this summer amid reduced Iranian gas imports and difficulties leasing an FSRU
Is a Russia-Iran gas deal on the horizon?
Russia has ample spare gas, and Iran needs it, but sanctions and pricing pose steep hurdles.
Letter from Iran: High-stakes nuclear diplomacy
Iran’s oil is caught in the crosshairs of support from China and Russia and US maximum pressure, with options becoming more and more limited
Letter from Iran: US sanctions cut off crude supply line
Deliveries to China decline by around 1m b/d from move to curb crude exports to Shandong port, putting Iran under further economic pressure
Assad’s downfall is bad news for Iran
The collapse of the Syrian dictator’s regime will weaken Tehran in profound ways both economically and geopolitically
Oil cannot escape Mideast conflict forever
Markets have seen no material disruption from the war so far, but as the fighting goes on it is a matter of when, not if
IOCs undeterred by Middle East conflict
Companies operating offshore assets in the region are unlikely to halt development plans for now, even as hostilities intensify
Donald Trump Iran
Ian Black
2 January 2020
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US withdrawal stirs the Middle East

Long-term adversaries are re-evaluating their allegiances in the wake of the US policy shift in the region

Shifting alliances and strategies, growing perceptions of US disengagement as well as tentative, exploratory rapprochement between rivals—look set to leave their mark on the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) in 2020.  President Donald Trump’s America First policy and his aversion to projecting power are recasting long-standing relationships, including those with Saudi Arabia and even Israel. The trend may become even more apparent in the run-up to the American presidential election in November 2020.  Trump’s controversial decision in October 2019 to withdraw US forces from northern Syria and effectively give the green light to a Turkish offensive against Kurdi

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