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The shadow fleet is the real chokepoint in 2026
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
China’s new oil position
OPEC, upstream investors and refiners all face strategic shifts now the Asian behemoth is no longer the main engine of global oil demand growth
The AI industry’s coming dominance of oil and gas
Tech giants rather than oil majors could soon upend hydrocarbon markets, starting with North America
EU sanctions push stalls ahead of fourth anniversary of Russian invasion
As Europe marks the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, EU efforts to tighten sanctions on Moscow have stalled
Canadian producers positioned to ride out the downcycle
The country’s upstream players have demonstrated resilience to low oil prices and are well positioned to prosper despite a volatile market
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
OPEC+’s cohesive restraint
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
Arctic LNG 2 adds Arc7 to its shadow fleet
Having found a steady buyer in China for its sanctioned gas, the Russian project is positioned for nearly year-round operations, yet its 11-vessel ‘shadow fleet’ is still insufficient to achieve anywhere near capacity utilisation.
OPEC+ set to strengthen its hand
The alliance looks to bolster market management credibility by bringing greater clarity and unity to output cuts and producer capacity later in 2026
Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
Russian deputy PM Alexander Novak and Iranian petroleum minister Javad Owji at the Tehran Oil Exhibition
Opinion
Iran Russia Markets Politics NOCs
Danial Rahmat
Tehran
7 June 2023
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Letter from Iran: Tehran's dreams and Moscow's deceptions

Russia is making a show of support for Iran as the two nations strengthen their ties, but the promised investment may never materialise

While the Ukraine conflict has widened the rift between Russia and the West, a more nuanced transformation is unfolding across the Middle East's geopolitical landscape as a result of the war. Alongside its cautious rapprochement with the Gulf Cooperation Council, shared problems have pushed Iran into deepening its political and economic relations with Russia. Tehran and Moscow have not only expanded their military cooperation, but have also signed economic agreements in the energy and transport sectors. For its part, Iran perceives itself on the brink of realising its long-held aspiration of forging a strategic alliance with Russia and China. The reality is more complex, however. The severit

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