US shale producers under oil-price pressure
US tight oil companies staged a comeback at the first sign of a price recovery last year. Now, as surging US shale activity undercuts the oil price, markets want them to start putting on the brakes.
Front-month WTI futures—the US crude benchmark price—briefly fell below $43 per barrel on 21 June before recovering to around $44/b later in the month. That's an almost $10/b-drop from a year-earlier. Bearish market sentiment from speculators—due to fears that commitment to the Opec-non-Opec production cuts may waiver—may account for some of the pressure on prices. But the real culprit is US shale. The rig count has been on a tear, rising every week for the last six months. And a flood of crude is following. US tight oil output looks set to rise by around 1m barrels per day by the end of this year (compared to the year-earlier level) exceeding nearly all expectations at the start of the year
Also in this section
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
3 March 2026
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
2 March 2026
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
