Pumping the US brakes
Output will rise again in 2018, but less drilling and greater capital discipline will slow growth
America's tight oil producers will add new supply in 2018, but the pace of additions will slow. Investors have been fretting over the growth-at-all-costs model, and a more tempered approach will take hold. Drilling activity rose sharply from June 2016 to June 2017; the rig count in the top four tight oil basins more than doubled. Production tends to lag a new well by about six months, so that run-up fuelled strong output growth through 2017. But the rig count crested in the summer and fell back to about 520 rigs for the rest of 2017. Unless a sudden price surge changes things quickly, the effect will be felt in early 2018. The huge backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells—the now-famous Ducs
Also in this section
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
3 March 2026
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
2 March 2026
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
