Iran hits crude comeback trail

Crude production has started to creep up in recent months, but much still hinges on the relaxation of US sanctions

The smoke signals of diplomacy over the Mid-East Gulf may be ambiguous, but Iran’s oil ambitions are not. Veteran oil minister Bijan Zanganeh intends 4.5mn bl/d in crude and condensate production and 2.3mn bl/d in exports by the next Iranian year, beginning on 21 March. This depends critically on the relaxation of sanctions—but is the country’s oil industry ready to meet the challenge? The previous period of sanctions, which ended with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), saw production recover from January 2016 much more sharply than many analysts had expected. It was possible to restart fields that had been shut down in a relatively orderly way without suffering damage or deteri