Iran hits crude comeback trail
Crude production has started to creep up in recent months, but much still hinges on the relaxation of US sanctions
The smoke signals of diplomacy over the Mid-East Gulf may be ambiguous, but Iran’s oil ambitions are not. Veteran oil minister Bijan Zanganeh intends 4.5mn bl/d in crude and condensate production and 2.3mn bl/d in exports by the next Iranian year, beginning on 21 March. This depends critically on the relaxation of sanctions—but is the country’s oil industry ready to meet the challenge? The previous period of sanctions, which ended with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), saw production recover from January 2016 much more sharply than many analysts had expected. It was possible to restart fields that had been shut down in a relatively orderly way without suffering damage or deteri
Also in this section
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
3 March 2026
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
2 March 2026
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
