Outlook 2026: The US energy paradox – Efficiency at home, influence abroad

The US’ domestic energy market may be stagnating, but its role in the global energy system looks set to bloom

Albert Einstein’s law of conservation of energy—the idea that energy can be neither created nor destroyed—feels almost prophetic today. As the US forges new energy pathways and navigates shifting alliances, that principle remains the unspoken law. Some analysts believe energy demand in the US has entered a permanent state of stagnation—driven by efficiency gains, industrial shifts and slower commercial growth since the financial crisis. Globally, demand is expected to rise by nearly 5%, with OECD nations edging lower and non-OECD economies expanding sharply. The US is transitioning from a demand-driven energy economy to an efficiency-focused, globally influential supplier. The US is tr